The Jacksonville/Urban Meyer Experiment Will Not End Well

I feel like I give the University of Ohio State enough credit on this site, but today boy am I going to shit on Urban Meyer and his latest coaching decision.

As of yesterday, Urban Meyer was confirmed as the next head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is going to be an unmitigated disaster. I have really, honestly tried to find ways in my brain that this works out for him. I thought about the evolution of the NFL game, especially on offense. I thought he may be able to get some kids he recruited before he left the university of Ohio State. I thought about some coaches who left college and have succeeded in the NFL. I even tried to put stock in the amount of money and leeway he is going to get. Nothing comes out good, at least in my opinion. The NFL has evolved. The game is faster, and there are more run/pass options than ever before. Lamar Jackson is an MVP and a super star. Guys like Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson are showing what you can do with a little mobility. The game has changed. But, Urban Meyer has only ever coached college teams, and his opponents, especially out of conference, have been pretty awful. That will not happen in the NFL. Meyer cannot tell the Jags front office to schedule a game against a CFL or XFL team. There is no Bowling Green or Miami of Ohio. There is no Stephen F Austin. There are some bad NFL teams, but they are filled with professional players, and the Jags are the worst of them all. They are the MAC or D-1AA school of the NFL.

Sure, Meyer may land Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence, and the Jags have a solid running back, but they have no real receiving threats, a shoddy at best O line and a real bad defense. There's a reason they won only one game, and it wasn't because they decided to tank. They are a bad football team, that is, at the very least, four years away from being competitive. Meyer is going to have to adjust, and for the first time in his coaching career, he is going to be the underdog always. And sure, he can draft or trade for kids he recruited, kids he knows, kids he has even coached, but I don't think the really good ones will leave decent situations to join Urban Meyer in Jacksonville. This isn't college where a kid can just up and transfer. These guys are on contracts, most want to win, or at least be in the playoff conversation, and most of them don't really care about who they played for, only who they play for right now. Is Ezekial Elliot really going to leave Dallas, where he is paid a fortune, and can be in the playoff conversation because of how bad that division is, just to go play for Urban Meyer? No way. Is Michael Thomas going to bounce out of NOLA because he has some odd Buckeye connection? Even if Drew Brees leaves after this year, the Saints will still be a far, far, far better team than the Jaguars. Even take a guy like Terry McLaurin. Why would he leave Washington, a team that was in the playoffs, and he is their star wideout, to go play for Meyer in Jacksonville? It is not going to happen. Urban Meyer is going to find this aspect very frustrating. He doesn't have his pick anymore. The Jags have cap space, but real pros do not want to go play in Jacksonville. Real pros want to compete. Meyer is in for a rude awakening when he realizes that he cannot just recruit people anymore.

When I tried to find parallels for college coaches that had instant success, then sustained it, no one came to mind. Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer both dominated the college game, then came to the pros and won Super Bowls, but they went to established Cowboys teams that were built to win. The Jags are a total rebuild. Chip Kelly had one good season in Philadelphia, again with a proven roster, then he totally faded into obscurity. Steve Spurrier had one great preseason game, then NFL players adjusted to his coaching style, and Washington was awful. Pete Carrol's first time around was bad, then he went back to college, then took the Seahawks job, but they had Marshawn Lynch, and a dominant defense. It just doesn't work for these gimmick, system coaches. People may throw Kliff Kingsbury at me, but Arizona was 8-8, missed the playoffs, and are not as good as one media company, The Ringer, may tell you. The offense Meyer runs is so gimmicky, but it works in college because teams do not have time to adjust, or are not on the same level talent wise. Everyone in the NFL was a star at their college and are as good as anyone else. Coaches also make adjustments daily. Meyer is going to have to game plan for guys like Andy Reid, Matt LaFleur, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Frank Reich and Sean McVay. These are all proven coaches, all have been to the playoffs, some to the Super Bowl, and some have won the Super Bowl. I would take any of those guys before Meyer.

The fact is that Meyer’s offense will also get easy to stop very fast, especially with such a young roster. And even throw in the money and the time, if Jacksonville wins three games this next season, and four the following, are the people in charge really going to still have a long leash? Are the fans going to be willing to wait even longer? Look at what just happened in Philadelphia. Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl three years ago, and he is gone. Ron Rivera was super successful, and won a ton of games while at Carolina, but no Super Bowl wins led to him being let go. Marvin Lewis always had the Bengals in the playoffs, but that wasn't enough even for that moribund franchise. Urban Meyer is like a shiny object, but shiny objects can get real messy real quick. If he only has seven to ten wins in two combined seasons, I wouldn't be shocked if he starts to get mentioned as a "hot seat" candidate in year three. And that is if he makes it that far.

We all know what happened at his last two jobs. Mysterious illnesses popped up, and they forced him out. I do not buy into any of that nonsense. The dude is a liar, he is pretty scummy and when trouble comes his way, he makes something up so no one can blame him. If Jacksonville is no good for two years, and they won't be, I'd bet more on him finding another "illness" than him getting fired. He will find some new excuse, make wild gestures and weird faces on the sidelines, and then he will suddenly disappear. Only this time the commentators and opposing teams and coaches will not call him a "fighter", or commend him for "toughing the season out". He will be considered a quitter if/when it comes to this inevitable conclusion.

Urban Meyer is a great college coach, with a very checkered past. I do not see him duplicating any of that success in the NFL. The coaches, players and staff are so much more prepared, and quite frankly, better than anything he will offer the Jaguars.

Ty

Ty is the Pop Culture editor for SeedSing and the other host of the X Millennial Man Podcast.

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