The Day After: New Hampshire Edition
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Here they come Nevada and South Carolina
Well, that is finally out of the way. The New Hampshire primary has cleared up the entire 2016 Presidential campaign. Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders will get to face off in November for the White House. The internet and national media won, their chosen candidates have emerged victorious. This circus is finally over. Will you "feel the Bern" or is it more important to "Make America Great Again". November 8th will be here before you know it. Let the national campaign begins.
Once again, I wish this was true. New Hampshire tried to clear things up way more than the Iowa Caucus. The first in the nation primary has always been the freal true test of determining who can win their respective parties nomination. Iowa is all about a candidate's ground game. Fringe candidates, especially Republicans, can use local political bosses to help sway voters away from their personal choices. The Iowa Caucus is all about the work a candidate puts in on the ground. The New Hampshire Primary allows people to vote their own preferences. Party bosses can not look you in the face and make a person change their vote. The mob can not sway the individual. In 1988 then New Hampshire Governor John H. Sununu famously said "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick Presidents". History has mostly proven Governor Sununu's words.
So that means Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination? Today is the first day that I actually started to accept the fact that Trump may incredibly be in this race until the very end. I have never believed in Trump's viability as a credible candidate for the U.S. Presidency. He does not represent the presented core philosophy of the GOP. He does however represent the ugly hate and class warfare cultivated by the Republican intelligentsia. Donald Trump is more like the zealots of the party who get relegated to being the Vice Presidential nominee (i.e. Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan and Dick Cheney). The National Republican Committee has been very successful at getting rid of the most unelectable members of their field in years past. The Bachmanns, Santorums, Jindels, and Huckabees may have been treated as credible candidates by the incompetent media, but the less offensive John McCains and Mitt Romneys would always comfortable win out and become the party's nominee. The New Hampshire Primary is where the accepted candidate of the National Republican establishment would take control and coast to the eventual nomination. Donald Trump is not the accepted national establishment candidate. He should have stumbled in the face of the moderate Republican hopefuls. Trump just destroyed the RNC's saviors.
But what about John Kasich you ask? He is the RNC's hero who will slay the evil Donald Trump. That is the latest narrative of this unpredictable primary season. The national Republicans are so desperate for a "moderate" candidate that they keep promoting anyone not named Trump or Cruz. Last week, after a third place finish in Iowa, it was Florida Senator Marco Rubio. The short time in the spotlight did not do Rubio any favors. He was horrible. When the people of New Hampshire voted, Rubio was not their choice. Now with a surprising second place finish in the Granite State, the RNC will rally around Ohio Governor Kasich as their chosen one. I hate to close down this new love fest for the Ohio Governor, but John Kasich got less than 16% of the total vote. He did come in second, but it was a far distant second. If we want to anoint Kasich as a viable alternative to Trump, then you need to also consider Senator Ted Cruz and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Their margin of defeat is a whole lot closer to John Kasich than Kasich's margin of defeat is to Donald Trump. I would also argue that Trump supporters second choice for President would be Ted Cruz and vice-versa. Looking at the New Hampshire results that way gives the Trump / Cruz block just under 50% of the vote. Add in other non establishment candidates like former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and the established RNC friendly candidates polled below 50%. John Kasich, along with the rest of the "acceptable" republicans lost, and they lost bad.
So what about the nomination for the Democratic Party. It looks like Bernie Sanders, right? Not exactly. The Democratic Party's New Hampshire results were not surprising. Ever since Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders entered the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, most people expected him to easily win the Granite State. It seems like the Hillary Clinton campaign did not even put up a fight in New Hampshire, and this allowed Sanders to have a decisive victory in the primary. The Clinton campaign has seemingly unlimited resources, the near full support of the Democratic Party establishment, and a lot of states yet to vote. They did not waste time, money, or talent where they did not need to. Senator Sanders has been using his cult of personality to get great press coverage, and make the Clinton campaign sweat. That will be coming to an end very soon. The Nevada Caucus and the South Carolina primary will truly show if the Bernie Sanders campaign has any credibility. Both of those states look to be easy wins for Hillary Clinton, but Iowa also looked to be an easy win. With the money and effort saved by not contesting New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton looks like she will still easily win the Democratic Party's Presidential nomination. It was fun having Bernie Sanders around, and he brought up some important issue, but the ride may have ended in the Granite State.
That is what everything looks like on the day after New Hampshire. Donald Trump is starting to pull away and unbelievably become a major parties nominee for President. I know the establishment of the Republican Party has to be scared. I also have a feeling that the RNC is considering some radical steps to protect their overall electoral chances in 2016. I would not be surprised if some people of influence in the Republican Party supported a third party candidate. The Democratic Party did not change course at all due to the results in New Hampshire. Senator Bernie Sanders had a nice little win, and Hillary Clinton is ready to start dominating the primary process with Nevada and South Carolina on the horizon. I may not "feel the Bern", but just yesterday I was telling people Donald Trump has zero chance to be a nominee for President of the United States. Maybe in two weeks I will have a new outlook for the Independent Senator from The Green Mountain State. I doubt it, but you never know. See you in a few weeks.
RD Kulik
RD is the Head Editor for SeedSing. He encourages your voice and donations to keep SeedSing free from big money influence. Follow us on twitter and make sure to like us on Facebook.