The Day After: Iowa Edition
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Your up next New Hampshire
Now begins the end of our long national headache. Iowa has spoken and it's majority old white male population has decided on Texas Senator Ted Cruz and defender of personal home computer servers Hillary Rodham Clinton. Pack up your bags, we do not need to worry about anything until the general election on November 8th. The nation will make history on that day when we elected the first female President in United States history. This by no means is a statement of political preference, Hillary Clinton will steamroll Ted Cruz. The national electoral numbers favor the Democratic party nominee, and Ted Cruz cannot grow any new voters. Many republicans will not vote for the Texas senator who has made a career out of being an obstructionist and demeaning people in his own party. Thank the gods this whole affair is over. Iowa has spoken, the nominees are set.
How much I wish it was true that the 2016 Presidential campaign was complete. Once the votes are certified in Iowa, the annoying itch of Election 2016 is going to turn into a painful infected sore. The media has doubled down on their incompetence in trying to turn the election of the President into an awful reality show. The news out of Iowa was presented in two ways - Donald Trump loses and Hillary Clinton barely won. New Hampshire will be reported in exactly the same way. The press knows they get ratings when they talk about Trump's ascension and Clinton's struggles. Ratings are way more important than actual journalism. We deserve real journalism in respect to who we elected to lead the nation.
So did the Iowa caucuses actually tell us anything of value concerning the Presidential campaign season? Iowa is a valuable predictor for the Democratic party nominee, not so much for the Republican. Over the last twenty years the eventual Democratic Party nominee has won every Iowa Caucus. In contrast only Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 (unopposed) has won the caucus. Go back another twenty years and the only Democratic Party nominees to lose the caucus are Bill Clinton in 1992 and Michael Dukakis in 1988. The only Republican nominees to win the caucus are an unopposed Ronald Reagan in 1984 and incumbent Gerald Ford eked out a victory in 1976. In the last forty years the Democratic nominee has won eight out of ten Iowa caucus where the Republican nominee has won five out of ten (two of those Republican wins were by incumbent Presidents who were unopposed in Iowa). If the Iowa Caucus did say anything about the 2016 election it is that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee and the Republican Party is still in disarray.
The tight margin of victory in Hillary Clinton's win is something the candidate should be worried about. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders made a better showing in Iowa than expected. His near win is due to the great ground organization his campaign built in the Hawkeye state. Hillary Clinton dismissed Barack Obama'a ground game in 2008, and she never recovered. It does look like the former Senator and Secretary of State may be making the same mistake again. Bill Clinton barely registered in Iowa during the 1992 caucus, but still won the nomination and eventually the White House that year. His biggest opposition, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt, did not take Bill Clinton seriously as a candidate. The conventional wisdom was that Gephardt was the true democrat, and Clinton was not in line with the party's philosophy. Bill Clinton capitalized on the youth vote who felt disconnected from the old Democratic Party. This strategy helped sustain the Clinton campaign, and the out of touch Gephardt was eventually defeated. Hillary Clinton seems to be having the same Bill Clinton problem that Dick Gephardt had. Bernie Sanders is going right after the established DC Democratic Party machine, and he is winning the youth vote. Barack Obama has proven you can beat Hillary Clinton with this strategy. The Iowa Caucus did show us that Hillary Clinton is once again relying on the money from the old Democratic machine, and is quickly being seen as out of touch with the youth vote. She needs to be afraid of losing the nomination again if she does not start embracing the Democratic Party that sits outside of the DC think tanks. Iowa should be a wake up call to her campaign.
Ted Cruz's narrow win does not mean a thing. He won Iowa, like Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008. The Republicans in Iowa sure do like their candidates that have zero shot on winning the nomination. Bob Dole crushed eventual nominee George H.W. Bush in 1998. Republican Presidential nominee John McCain finished a distant fourth place in 2008. Iowa is completely insignificant to the national Republican Party. The New Hampshire Primary is a much better predictor for who will be the party's nominee. Since 1952 the eventual Republican Party Presidential nominee has won the New Hampshire Primary thirteen out of sixteen times. On the day after Iowa, the Republican Party is right where it was on the day before.
The beginning of the end that is the 2016 Presidential campaign has begun. The caucus goers of Iowa have spoken, and told us nothing. The Clinton campaign needs to learn from 2008 and not make the same mistakes. It does not look like they have learned. The Republican Party needs to not read that much into Ted Cruz's victory, Iowa rarely matters to their base. The 2016 election has officially started. Our long national headache is coming to an end.
RD Kulik
RD is the Head Editor for SeedSing and the host of the X Millennial Man podcast. He really wants some great writers to assist him with the 2016 election season - write for SeedSing. He also really wants to pay those writers - Support SeedSing.