The Presidential primary election is usually a boring, anticlimactic, process the country goes through ever four years. There are a few legends of divided presidential nominating contests. In 1800 Thomas Jefferson handily beat incumbent John Adams in the election for President, yet due to some quirks in the process of electing the executive, the victorious Jefferson had to fight it out in the US House of Representatives with his own running mate, former Senator Aaron Burr. The electoral stalemate was broken only when Jefferson's rival, former US Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton, threw his support behind the Democratic-Republican candidate from Virginia. Jefferson went on to become President, and Burr killed Hamilton in a duel a few years later. The second Republican Party convention of 1860 famously saw relative unknown former Illinois Representative Abraham Lincoln go from a third place finish on the first ballot, to winning the nomination on the third. The 1948 Democratic Party convention ended in a split within the the party when the pro-segregationists left to form the Dixiecrats. Other infamous political icons like South Carolina's John Calhoun, Nebraska's William Jennings Bryan, and New York's Horatio Seymour have at times made their party's nomination contests somewhat of a circus.
Not one of these historical episodes compares to what happened to the Democratic Party in 1968. Incumbent President Lyndon Johnson choose to not seek the party's nomination due to increasing public dissent over his administrations role in escalating the war in Vietnam. Senators Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota and Robert Kennedy of New York were challenging for the nomination by running on an anti-war platform. With President Johnson out, the establishment of the Democratic party was rallying behind Vice President Hubert Humphrey. In the lead up to the convention in Chicago, the nation was in the grip of never ending tragedy and violence. On April 4th, civil rights icon Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated in Memphis Tennessee. June 5th, shortly after claiming victory in the Democratic Party's California primary, Robert Kennedy was assassinated by a lone gunman. Many cities across the United States were experiencing riots due to the discord in the country. The baby boomers were beginning to reach voting age, and many of them were tired of seeing their family and friends coming back from Vietnam injured, mentally damaged, or dead. They wanted their concerns to be heard, and the politicians was ignoring their voices. The Democratic Party Convention in Chicago was marred by constant protests and violence in the streets. Things were made even worse when the party nominated the pro-Johnson Humphrey over the anti-war McCarthy. The nomination of Hubert Humphrey was seen as a manipulation by party leaders because the sitting Vice President had not even competed in a number of state primaries, and the anti-war McCarthy, with the primary votes won by the recently deceased Kennedy, had garnered over three quarters of support from actual Democrats. Party insiders had gone directly against the will of the people, and nominee Hubert Humphrey was destroyed in the general election by Republican Richard Nixon.
Is 2016 shaping up to be another 1968? The two parties are getting ready to nominate candidates who have extremely high disapproval numbers. The primary process itself has been marred by political insiders trying to subvert the will of the voters. The parties are ignoring the millennial voters and their concern about economic security and opportunity. There has been more talk about convention rules and superdelegates than there has been about the will of the voters. Violence has been erupting at events associated with Presidential candidates. The anger and fear of the younger generation of voters is being ignored by the establishment candidates. The summer of 2016 is starting to look like that of 1968. What has happened to bring us back to this point almost 50 years later?
The road to the nomination for New York businessman Donald Trump mirrors the 1968 Democratic Party nomination. In 2016, like in 1968, the party was divided along many different ideologies. The insane number of Republicans who competed in the early primaries caused a fracture in the central GOP philosophy. Voters were split and would gravitate towards candidates based a few issues. No consensus candidate could be rallied behind. Trump emerged as an alternative to the establishment Republican ideals by speaking directly to the fears and anger of the Republican voters. Unlike in 1968 when the Democratic establishment was able to force their preferred candidate to the nomination, the republican voters of 2016 were able to elect their man. The incompetence of the Republican National Committee, and the cheerleading from the press, led directly to the embarrassment that is Donald Trump's candidacy. The dangerous and un-American rhetoric from the New York businessman is leading us into a summer of discord. The Republican Convention in Cleveland is getting ready for 1968 Chicago levels of disruption.
The eventual nomination of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by the Democratic party has more in common with the ascension of Richard Nixon to the GOP nomination in 1968. Nixon easily won the nomination in 1968 because he was the party's most reliable national figure. The former Vice President had been around Washington D.C. for decades. He was a well known commodity for a party that did not have a strong bench of nationally renowned figures. Nixon was mildly challenged by an upstart in California Governor Ronald Reagan, but no one in the Republican establishment were taking any of Reagan'a new conservative ideas seriously. The former Vice President also devised the "southern strategy" during the primary season to make sure that core republican voters were solidly in the Nixon camp. Richard Nixon was not a popular choice, but he was the best the party could do. Plus, with the problems in the Democratic Party, Nixon could be presented as the sensible choice for President.
Secretary Clinton has been presented as the "next person up" since she announced her candidacy is 2015. The Democratic Party insiders have done their best to smack down the different ideas of the Bernie Sanders campaign. The primary plan for Clinton has been a bizarro southern strategy where the former Secretary of State has secured the support of minorities who tend to be traditional Democratic voters. Her campaign uses these tactics to drown out and ignore the disaffected millennials. Clinton may not have secured the nomination with the same ease that Nixon did, but her inevitability followed the same path. The Democratic party have already adopted the GOP 1968 talking points by insinuating that Hillary Clinton is the sensible choice for President in 2016. Core voters, establishment support, and being the most acceptable person available, that is how Hillary Clinton won the primary.
As the Primary season ends, and the party conventions just around the corner, the United States is living in a new era of public frustration. The Republican Party is being fueled by anger and violence, while the Democratic party is catering to the establishment while it ignores its younger voters. The nomination process of 1968 fatally injured the Democratic Party, and cut a small wound in the GOP. Both parties were forever changed by what happened. Forty-eight years later, 2016 has seen the Republican Party fall to pieces with the Democrats starting to accelerate their demise. Donald Trump will hurt the entire Republican Party in 2016, like Humphrey did to the Democrats in 1968. Hillary Clinton will easily win the Presidency in 2016, following the same path the fates set for Richard Nixon. Many voters on both sides of the political spectrum will feel left out. The discord and anger in the country will get worse. The election of 1968 started a political revolution that lasted for almost 50 years. How long will the revolution of 2016 last?
ed note: The original article misspelled Senator Eugene McCarthy's name. We have corrected the mistake.
RD
RD Kulik is the Head Editor for SeedSing and the host of the X Millennial Man Podcast. He wants to know how in the world Hillary Clinton will not win the 2016 election. Come on and tell us.
